The once-cohesive Coalition is now in disarray, with a growing movement seeking to replace it in the center. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser, until his passing in 2015, was actively working on a plan to establish a new political party, Renew Australia. He believed the Liberal Party had strayed from the liberal values he held dear. This project, unfortunately, stalled after his death, but the underlying sentiment remained. Now, nearly a decade later, the idea is gaining momentum once again.
In Sydney, Melbourne, and Adelaide, a series of informal discussions and approaches have emerged, involving former Liberal moderates, ex-Coalition staffers, teal MPs, retired Labor figures, community organizers, and donors who once supported the Liberal Party's business wing. These individuals share a common concern: the Liberal Party may no longer be capable of reclaiming its center-right identity, and they worry about the implications for democracy if effective opposition is lacking.
Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull recently emphasized this argument, warning that the party is heading down a cul-de-sac. He noted that the right-wing element has taken over, and there are few moderates left in the party room. However, Turnbull didn't dismiss the idea of a new political force, suggesting that a center or center-right movement combining disaffected Liberals and teal independents is possible, especially as the party shifts to the right.
Recent polling data supports the notion that many voters have already moved away from the Liberal Party. The Resolve Political Monitor indicates a decline in the Liberal Party's primary vote to the mid-20s, while One Nation has gained support in the high teens. Over 40% of voters are now looking to non-major parties.
The March state election in South Australia could be a turning point, where informal talks evolve into something more concrete. The emerging model from this group draws heavily from the teal experience, including a Senate-first strategy, selective lower-house contests, climate credibility paired with pro-business economics, and deep local organizing.
Self-styled centrist independents have already demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach. In 2019 and 2022, community-backed candidates won in Liberal strongholds such as Warringah, Mackellar, North Sydney, and Wentworth in Sydney, Goldstein and Kooyong in Melbourne, and Curtin in Perth. In 2025, independents again reshaped contests, winning Bradfield in Sydney and finishing second in five Labor-held seats.
Those within the Liberals describe a sense of political suffocation, with preselection dominated by branch activists, policy narrowed by culture-war signaling, and influence concentrated among factions uninterested in metropolitan recovery. This mismatch has fueled renewed discussions about a centrist breakaway.
Despite some speculation, Turnbull has publicly denied being involved in these discussions. However, the unnamed grouping is drawing inspiration from Prosper UK, a movement attached to Britain's Conservative Party, and Faculty AI, the startup hired by political guru Dominic Cummings for the Vote Leave campaign. They have also consulted leading international government digital services advisers and government transformation specialists.
One individual associated with the project is Hannah March, an Adelaide-based barrister who previously worked as a ministerial staffer in the Turnbull and Morrison governments. She suggests that a split into the Liberal and Conservative parties, with conservatives retaining the remaining membership, could be considered at a national level. She also proposes a broad coalition involving the Liberal, Conservative, and National parties, along with community-backed independents, to help shape Australia's future.
Advocates of this idea emphasize that MPs would be given the right to remain independent and vote on all laws based on their conscience, especially on issues affecting their constituencies. However, several teal MPs, including Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan, and Allegra Spender, declined interview requests.
The introduction of new federal political donation laws on July 1 has added complexity. The regime caps individual donations at $50,000, lowers the disclosure threshold to $5000, and imposes spending limits. Several teal independents have criticized these changes, and Zoe Daniel and Rex Patrick have challenged the legislation in the High Court.
While some see a new centrist party as a solution, others argue that Australia needs a Liberal Party willing to rediscover its core purpose. Lucy Wicks, a former Liberal MP, believes the party needs to reconnect with its values and the communities it once represented. She traces her political faith to the belief in reward for effort and individual opportunity, and she questions whether the Liberals are engaging with younger generations, like her son, who are influenced by TikTok reels.
The success of the teals, built on independence, raises questions about the appeal of formalizing an alliance. John Roskam argues that the teals' success was tactical, and formalizing an alliance would undercut their appeal. Others are skeptical about the party's viability as a pathway to change.
Despite these challenges, the question of whether a new centrist force can emerge is no longer academic. It is a live issue, and the coming state and federal elections will be crucial in determining the party's fate. The next round of elections will reveal whether the party is institutionally broken and whether there is the internal will to reform.
